Some of the models suggest that Rafael may even do a small loop out in the Gulf. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area but has a low chance of development over the next week.

Hurricane Kate was the last November storm of this strength in the Gulf that year, almost four decades ago. It ultimately made landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm. As with Rafael, Kate was the eleventh storm of the season and first made landfall in Cuba.